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17 Mar 2025
CAD firms modestly on the day – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed over the weekend, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
CAD retests key USD support at 1.4350
"There has been scant news on US/Canada tariff issues but PM Carney did remark Friday that there was progress in talks, without specifying what that progress was. The CAD is catching a bit of a bid off the generally softer USD tone to press up against the recent range low (and technical support) for the USD in the mid-1.43s. The USD continues to trade significantly above our fair value estimate (1.4109 currently), suggesting ample downside potential in spot at least."
"Technical signals are mixed. On the one hand, price moves last week indicated a short-term top/reversal (bearish 'evening star' candle pattern) developed around Tuesday’s spot high. Firm resistance sits at 1.4515/20 now and a little higher still at 1.4545/50."
"However, the USD enjoys the support of solidly bullish trend momentum across the intraday, daily and weekly charts now which will bolster support around 1.4340/50 (40-day MA and last week’s low). A push under 1.4350 may see spot ease back to 1.4225/50."