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ECB's Lane: Central bank must stand ready to counter any deviation in CPI

European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said on Tuesday that the ECB must stand ready to counter any deviation in CPI.

Key quotes

This is going to be a lively 5 years.
The ECB must stand ready to counter any deviation in CPI.
10% tariffs are part of the ECB baseline.
Looks like inflation is around the target.

Market reaction  

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading 0.01% lower on the day at 1.1785. 

ECB FAQs

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

ECB's Nagel: Policy is now in neutral zone

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday that the monetary policy is now in a neutral zone. Nagel further stated that he really hopes that tariff discussions with the United States (US) will come to a good end.
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ECB’s Wunsch on interest rates: If we would have to move, it would be down

Speaking on the interest rates outlook on Tuesday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Pierre Wunsch said that “if we would have to move, it would be down.”
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