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ECB wage tracker signals softer pressures ahead – BBH

The ECB remains well-positioned to keep rates steady as wage growth trends lower, reinforcing confidence in inflation returning to target and supporting EUR/USD’s ongoing uptrend, BBH FX analysts report, BBH FX analysts report.

Negotiated wage growth seen slowing toward 2% target

"The ECB remains in a good place to keep rates hold. The ECB’s negotiated wage tracker points to lower and more stable wage pressures consistent with the ECB’s 2% inflation target."

"The wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments - which closely matches the ECB’s indicator of negotiated wages - indicates an average negotiated wage growth of 2.9% y/y over 2025 vs. 4.8% in 2024 and easing further to 2.4% for the first half of 2026. Bottom line: ECB/Fed policy stance continues to underpin the uptrend in EUR/USD."

USD/JPY might weaken to 145.85 – UOB Group

Strong downward momentum may lead to further US Dollar (USD) weakness, possibly toward 145.85. In the longer run, sharp increase in short-term downward momentum suggests USD could weaken to 145.85, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous 9.2% to 29.7% in September 12

United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous 9.2% to 29.7% in September 12
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