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13 Feb 2026
New Zealand: Inflation expectations edge higher – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team reviews the RBNZ Survey of Expectations, noting that 2-year ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.37%, with 5-year and 10-year measures also ticking higher. They point out that despite the upward trend, these moves are unlikely to affect next week’s RBNZ meeting, while unemployment expectations eased slightly and house price expectations dipped.
RBNZ survey signals modest upward trend
"The focus is usually on 2y ahead inflation expectations within the survey, and this increased from 2.28% to 2.37%. Meanwhile, 5y ahead inflation expectations rose from 2.22% to 2.31%, and 10y ahead inflation expectations lifted from 2.18% to 2.30%."
"While these measures have been trending higher in recent quarters, they are unlikely to move the needle for next week's meeting."
"Looking at 1y ahead unemployment rate expectations, this decreased from 5.01% to 4.95% and 2y ahead unemployment rate expectations dropped from 4.71% to 4.58%. House price expectations decreased very slightly."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)