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21 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: The Fed is tilted toward the hawkish side - Nomura
Nomura Economists note that the minutes for the January 29-30 FOMC meeting revealed that many FOMC participants were concerned about potential costs of quantitative easing and that there was difficulty in setting numerical thresholds for tapering/ending QE3.
They note that although most participants believed that QE3 had been effective in helping the economic recovery, the chances of ending/tapering asset purchases before the outlook for the labor market improves substantially has risen materially. They write, “Looking ahead, there is an increased possibility that the Fed could show a more detailed cost-benefit assessment of QE3 in the policy statement and introduce a framework to flexibly adjust the pace of asset purchases as early as the March meeting.”
They note that although most participants believed that QE3 had been effective in helping the economic recovery, the chances of ending/tapering asset purchases before the outlook for the labor market improves substantially has risen materially. They write, “Looking ahead, there is an increased possibility that the Fed could show a more detailed cost-benefit assessment of QE3 in the policy statement and introduce a framework to flexibly adjust the pace of asset purchases as early as the March meeting.”