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2 Feb 2016
China: Reserves likely to register another sharp decline – SocGen
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Societe Generale, suggests that China’s FX reserves are expected to have fallen further to $3,200bn at end-January from $3,330 at end-2015.
Key Quotes
“Changes in FX valuations in the first month of 2016 were likely negligible. Therefore, we estimate that the PBoC’s FX interventions over the month amounted to about $130bn, similar to in December.
The PBoC allowed USD/CNY to slide at the beginning of the month but then had to intensify its interventions in light of elevated depreciation expectations. It is more than likely that the total amount of interventions, whether reflected in the reserve figure or not, was much higher than our forecast.”
Key Quotes
“Changes in FX valuations in the first month of 2016 were likely negligible. Therefore, we estimate that the PBoC’s FX interventions over the month amounted to about $130bn, similar to in December.
The PBoC allowed USD/CNY to slide at the beginning of the month but then had to intensify its interventions in light of elevated depreciation expectations. It is more than likely that the total amount of interventions, whether reflected in the reserve figure or not, was much higher than our forecast.”