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3 Feb 2016
NZ jobs: Huge surprise, looks exagerated - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - According to Philip Borkin, Senior Economist at ANZ, the NZ employment report, while looking exaggeratedly good, should reduce the odds of an OCR cut by the RBNZ in the near-term.
Key Quotes
"In what is a huge surprise, today’s labour market figures showed the unemployment rate falling a massive 0.7ppts in Q4 to 5.3%, the lowest rate since March 2009."
"That looks exaggerated, but details in the survey were generally good so we’ll run with the spirit; the labour market is improving, and amidst a strong labour supply backdrop."
"Employment increased 0.9% q/q (after a surprise contraction in Q3). The composition of employment was solid, with both full and part-time employment rising. The alternative QES measure of filled jobs rose 1.0% q/q. Hours worked and QES paid hours rose 1.0% q/q and 1.4% q/q respectively. And total gross earnings were strong, lifting 2.1% q/q (6.0% y/y). This is all consistent with a reasonable economic backdrop."
"The lift in employment is also consistent with timelier measures of labour demand such as firms’ hiring intentions and job ads."
"The Household Labour Force Survey has long had questions over its accuracy given that there have often been cases where large “surprises” such as today’s outcome are thrown up. Those questions will linger today."
"But stepping back, and discounting the move in the unemployment rate somewhat, there was still a positive hue to the figures."
"That said, it was not one-way traffic. Measures of wage inflation were again soft (and below expectations)."
"Net on net, we feel the data reduces the odds of an OCR cut in the near-term (we’d go as far to say as it rules out March completely) and favour an ongoing watchful stance from the RBNZ."
Key Quotes
"In what is a huge surprise, today’s labour market figures showed the unemployment rate falling a massive 0.7ppts in Q4 to 5.3%, the lowest rate since March 2009."
"That looks exaggerated, but details in the survey were generally good so we’ll run with the spirit; the labour market is improving, and amidst a strong labour supply backdrop."
"Employment increased 0.9% q/q (after a surprise contraction in Q3). The composition of employment was solid, with both full and part-time employment rising. The alternative QES measure of filled jobs rose 1.0% q/q. Hours worked and QES paid hours rose 1.0% q/q and 1.4% q/q respectively. And total gross earnings were strong, lifting 2.1% q/q (6.0% y/y). This is all consistent with a reasonable economic backdrop."
"The lift in employment is also consistent with timelier measures of labour demand such as firms’ hiring intentions and job ads."
"The Household Labour Force Survey has long had questions over its accuracy given that there have often been cases where large “surprises” such as today’s outcome are thrown up. Those questions will linger today."
"But stepping back, and discounting the move in the unemployment rate somewhat, there was still a positive hue to the figures."
"That said, it was not one-way traffic. Measures of wage inflation were again soft (and below expectations)."
"Net on net, we feel the data reduces the odds of an OCR cut in the near-term (we’d go as far to say as it rules out March completely) and favour an ongoing watchful stance from the RBNZ."