When is the Aussie Trade Balance and how will it affect the AUD/USD?

Aussie Trade Balance overview

The Australian Trade Balance figure for March, which drops at 01:30 GMT, is expected to print a $650 million surplus on the balance of exports to imports, a contraction of almost $200 million from the previous month's $825 million surplus. While the Aussie is typically non-reactive to Trade Balance figures, a sharp miss for the headline numbers could easily fuel continued softness heading into the end of the week, as the Aussie sits at the bottom of a very deep pit, having tumbled 4% from April's high and nearly 8% on the year.

How could the Trade Balance affect the AUD/USD?

The AUD/USD may see a limited impact from the initial Trade Balance figures, but with the majority of Australia's economic indicators missing to the downside on a consistent basis, continued lag in macro figures will do the Aussie few favors and help to expose further downside in the pair. As FXStreet's Chief Analyst, Valeria Bednarik noted about the AUD/USD in the run-up to the Trade Balance figures: "Australia will start the day publishing its March Trade Balance data, building permits and the HIA New Home Sales report, which may result in lower lows for the pair, particularly if housing data disappoints. The 4 hours chart shows that the intraday advance was contained by a bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators have turned flat after a modest recovery within negative territory, indicating that buying interest is still limited and that lower lows are still on the table."

Support levels: 0.7470 0.7430 0.7400

Resistance levels: 0.7530 0.7550 0.7590

Key notes

Trading the Aussie with Australia Trade Balance

AUDUSD: The short term momentum indicators are mixed today

AUD/USD pressured by SMA

AUD/USD analysis: Australian housing data could result in lower lows

About the Aussie Trade Balance

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.