US: Expect a 0.2% m/m increase in average hourly earnings – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs’ Analysts offer a sneak peek at what to expect from today's US May labor market report due for release at 1230 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“We see the labor market as at or a bit beyond full employment, and at some point, diminished slack should exert downward pressure on job growth.

We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 205k in May, 15k above consensus.

While labor supply constraints often weigh on May job creation when the labor market is beyond full employment, we believe strong jobless claims data, rebounding business surveys, and a return to normal weather suggest a pickup in payroll growth.

We estimate the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.9% in May.

We estimate a 0.2% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings (2.6% year-on-year).”