China: Positive economic releases – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that China released a positive slate of December data including above consensus readings in industrial production 6.9% YoY (market , 5.9%, TD 6.1%), retail sales 8.0% YoY (market 7.9%, TD 8.0%) and fixed assets 5.4% YoY (market 5.2%).

Key Quotes

“GDP was in line with expectations at 6.0% y/y, with 6.1% growth registered for the full year. The data continues the run of positive data surprises in China including in trade and credit metrics.”

“We expect a further pick up in activity, albeit a gradual one, with authorities unwilling to significantly expand both monetary and fiscal stimulus. The Phase 1 trade deal is likely only to provide marginal support to growth given most tariffs remain in place.”