Canada: Markets price a rate cut – TDS

The market's focus will be centered around Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision and Friday's Labour Force Survey. The global macro narrative surrounding the coronavirus is clearly in the driver's seat and will dominate the volatility this week, strategists at TD Securities brief.

Key quotes

“Our call for the Bank to keep rates unchanged is under review amid ongoing market turmoil tied to COVID-19. Markets are fully priced for a 25bp cut but only a minority (9/27) of forecasters look for the Bank to follow through with easing.”

“We look for the labour market to add 12k jobs in February following two months of >25k job growth. We look for services to drive overall job growth, led by a rebound in health care.”

“Elsewhere, modest job growth figures should see the unemployment rate edge higher to 5.6% (from 5.54%) while we see wage growth cooling to 3.9% owing to a combination of base-effects and some moderation from the 1.0% m/m increase in January.”