USD/CAD: Oil and leverage shock gyrates the loonie – TDS

Within the G10, the CAD is uniquely positioned to suffer. In addition to the sudden stop nature of global economic activity, the loonie suffers from the collapse of oil prices, per TD Securities.

Key quotes

“While the oil price matters for CAD, it is primarily knock-on effects of the drop in commodity prices that is problematic. This will acutely weigh on business investment, which has not recovered since the 2014/15 oil collapse.”

“Canada has long suffered from a productivity puzzle, which has seen inferior growth relative to the USD. A weak CAD is needed now more than ever as it is unclear at this time how productivity will normalize as the viral outbreak evolves.”

“A move to 1.50 in USD/CAD is inevitable.”