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Noticias de trading
26 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: USD/CNY looks bearish ahead - BTMU
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts are bearish USD/CNT for the week ahead and see spot moving within a range of 6.1600 and 6.1950.
They begin by noting that we are nearly at their old 6-month forecast level in terms of spot, and if the band widening occurs earlier as posited last week there’s now a realistic chance of USD/CNY ending below 6 by the end of this year. They feel that the relaxation of CNH rules in Hong Kong will only add punch to the party. They had thought onshore authorities might pause their fix around 6.2400 but today spot is already 100pips below that. They feel that the easiest way to understand this is as a reflection of ongoing capital inflows and attendant exchange rate pressures. They write, “Based on patterns of fixings seen before last year’s band widening, there is always the chance widening takes place even earlier than our forecast but we continue to think more preparations are necessary before the move.”
They begin by noting that we are nearly at their old 6-month forecast level in terms of spot, and if the band widening occurs earlier as posited last week there’s now a realistic chance of USD/CNY ending below 6 by the end of this year. They feel that the relaxation of CNH rules in Hong Kong will only add punch to the party. They had thought onshore authorities might pause their fix around 6.2400 but today spot is already 100pips below that. They feel that the easiest way to understand this is as a reflection of ongoing capital inflows and attendant exchange rate pressures. They write, “Based on patterns of fixings seen before last year’s band widening, there is always the chance widening takes place even earlier than our forecast but we continue to think more preparations are necessary before the move.”